Do the Patriots Fumble Less at Home?

Despite the mountain of evidence that there was no tampering in Deflate Gate, there’s a very basic and very obvious question to be asked: Do the Patriots fumble less at home? After all, that’s where the Wells Report alleges they deflate footballs for a competitive advantage — during home games where New England personnel can take possession of the balls outside of the referee’s watch. Is there a smoking gun in the form of their home game fumbling rates?

Spoiler: Nope. Not even close.

Ironically, out of 32 NFL teams, the Patriots come away looking like the least likely team to have a home-away discrepancy in football quality. New England has actually fumbled more frequently at home than on the road since 2007!

Home Fumble Improvement 07-14

2014 was actually the Patriot’s best home year of the period, fumbling at a 0.45% lower rate at home than on the road…good for 4th in the league this year in home fumbling improvement. (data from PFR across all offensive plays, save for kneels) Tampa Bay and Oakland led the league, with a fumble rate that was 1.5% lower at home than on the road. If you aren’t familiar with how big of a difference that is, here’s a refresher on fumbling data. Also worth noting is that the three dome teams thrown out in the infamously bad “Sharp” fumble analysis — Atlanta, Indianapolis and New Orleans — are either similar on the road (New Orleans) or fumble less away from the dome; the top road fumbling teams over the period are (1) New England, 1.08% (2) Atlanta, 1.21% (3) Indianapolis, 1.35%.

Additionally, since 2007, the Patriots have the most consistent performance in the NFL between home and away fumbling rates. Year by year, they fumble at similar rates in home and away games. Below are the year-by-year fumbling rate improvements for each team from 2007-2014 — notice how the Patriots straddle the league average like a metronome, exhibiting the least amount of variation among any team:

Home Fumble Variance 07-14Curiously, Tampa Bay also holds the best single-season improvement for home fumbling rates over the last eight seasons, fumbling at an amazing 2.38% lower rate at home in 2011.

The Patriots are alleged to have deflated footballs at home, yet the Patriots fumble slightly more at home when the average team fumbles less at home, Tom Brady is statistically better on the road and the measurements at halftime of the AFC Championship are incredibly similar to the Colts non-tampered footballs. I think it’s pretty clear what’s going on here…

The best team of the last decade can’t figure out how to properly deflate footballs.