Dean Oliver’s Four Factors uses box score data to determine how teams are successful in key elemental areas. Instead of looking at box stats like turnovers and rebounding, what if we used different types of plays to determine a team’s offensive strengths? Synergy tracks a number of play types, but not all have a large impact on the game. Based on the 2016 data on nba.com, the following were the most common play types this year:
- 25% were pick-n-roll plays
- 20% were spot-ups
- 15% were in transition
Naturally, teams differentiate themselves from the pack based on the plays they run the most; The Lakers led the league in isolation plays, but their efficiency was below-average on those plays, so they lost lots of ground on the average offense. The five categories from Synergy with the largest degree of differentiation were:*
- Pick-n-Roll (PnR)
- Spot Up
- Post Up
- Off Screen
Below is a visual of how every team in the NBA this year fared in these five factors.
The y-axis represents the per-game differentiation based on efficiency of a given play type (relative to league average). For instance, if a team ran 820 post ups (10 per game) and averaged 0.10 points per play more than league average, they would generate an extra point per game.
Not surprisingly, the most differentiating play type during the 2016 season was a Golden State spot-up shot. Of the 203 players with at least 100 spot-ups, Steph Curry was 2nd in efficiency at 1.49 points per play and splash brother Klay Thompson 15th at 1.18 points per play. (League average was 0.97 points per spot-up.) Let’s simplify the above visual and just focus on the final eight teams left in this year’s playoff field:
Now it’s easier to see how the remaining teams stack up. The Warriors don’t really have a post-up game, but so what? They excel at everything else and created the most differentiation of any team in the league in three major categories (PnR, Spot Up and Off Screen.) On the other hand, the Spurs were dominant in the post and excellent in their own right at spot-up plays, but they don’t do damage in transition. (San Antonio also led the league in “put backs” by a large degree, generating over a point of separation alone in that category.) The East’s best team, Cleveland, was above-average at everything.
*Isolation plays would be the 6th major play type. However, no team in 2016 created a point of positive or negative differentiation from isolation plays, which accounted for 8% of all plays tracked during the season.