Backpicks GOAT: #30 Bob Pettit

Key Stats and Trends

  • Never played on a dominant team
  • Despite strong box stats, limited evidence for elite peak

Scouting Report

There’s almost no video of Bob Pettit – the closest thing we have to a continuous reel of game tape is probably the 1962 All-Star game – so this will be the briefest scouting report in this series. It’s clear from the limited evidence that Pettit was a fluid athlete who had a good first step and an effective outside jumper. (He hit two shots near 3-point range in the first half of that ’62 ASG.) He could drive and finish around the hoop, was an active offensive rebounder and seemed to constantly probe for better position off the ball. Pettit himself felt his offensive rebounding was his best attribute, discussed below in this wonderful video on his career:

In the limited archives, there aren’t many instances of Pettit finding a great pass. However, there are some clips of decent assists or outright creation, setting up teammates after drawing defensive attention. Combined with his typical assist per game figures (often in the 3s) it’s likely that Pettit was a moderate creator for his time.

On film, his defense looks like a mixed bag. He occasionally reached when guarding the ball, but otherwise constantly swiveled his head to check his positioning. His recovery and shot-blocking don’t pop in any available footage, and he wasn’t known for verticality. However, it appears he was a strong defensive rebounder, but not quite elite in that realm.

Using estimates of rebounding, it’s likely that he was around 17 percent in total rebounding rate during his best seasons, comparable to modern bigs like Anthony Davis or Pau Gasol. In the first five seasons rebounding percentage were officially tallied — when defensive rebounding rates were chronologically closest to the ’60s — Pettit’s numbers would have ranked about 10th in a given season, or around the 80th percentile among big men.

As his career unfolded, Pettit’s physical condition changed dramatically. According to his account, he was a slender 210 pounds when he entered the league. After taking punishment in the paint, including 140 career stitches in his face and a broken hand that forced him to wear a cast at times in 1957 and ’58, he added 35 pounds with weight training, bulking to 245 pounds (at 6-feet-8 in socks). Pettit retired at 32, tearing a ligament in his knee in his final season in 1965.

Impact Evaluation

The shot-clock was to the NBA what the Cambrian explosion was to biology. Before Danny Biasone’s timekeeping innovation, the league was in a dull place, contracting a team in 1953 (Indianapolis) before another disbanded in 1954 (Baltimore). In 1951, there was even a 19-18 game. With the clock’s implementation in the 1955 season, the league entered a period of exponential growth in which racial barriers eroded, rules evolved and money poured in, all of which attracted a larger talent pool. The game grew so fast (pun intended) that there were conversations about banning tall players.

One measurement of this growth is the prominence of new players, and as you can see below, an influx of rookies played larger roles at the outset of this period:

In the last 65 years, there have been only five seasons where rookies topped 13 percent of the 1500-minute players, and all five were between 1955 and 1963. The league was immature then, and the teams tightly packed; the hardest period in history to create any separation was in the late ’50s and early ’60s. So while parity prevented a dominant team until the Celtics empire, some of those 50-win teams were quite impressive.

Pettit entered the league in ’55 and immediately assumed a leading role, nearly doubling his second-best teammate in scoring. Despite frequent roster turnover and coaching turmoil during his first few years, the Hawks gradually improved, climbing from an also-ran to a .500 team, adding notables like Slater Martin and Ed Macauley. And a .500 team was good enough to win back then, as St. Louis took the ’58 title with a quotidian SRS of 0.8.

Pettit was the first great scorer of the shot-clock era and claimed two scoring titles in the ’50s. Thanks to his outside touch (visible on film), his efficiency was bested by only a handful of players during the post shot-clock explosion. Here’s how he stacked up in the first 15 years of the clock:

The Hawks peaked in 1959, playing at a 50-win pace (prorated to an 82-game schedule). Macauley moved to coaching and All-Star center Clyde Lovellette joined the team. More importantly, Pettit, free of his cast, spiked in scoring and efficiency while his assists ticked back up. Commensurate with Pettit’s individual improvement, the St. Louis attack finished first in the league in relative offensive rating in ’59. After two average seasons of offense, they posted +2.9 rORtg in ’59, a near identical number to their 1960 mark of +3.0. So while the defense remained steady, the offense turned them into potential challengers to Boston in those years.1

With rookie and future Hall-of-Famer Lenny Wilkens aboard in 1961, the Hawks produced another 50-win pace season. But the ’62 team fell apart, despite Pettit and Hagan logging big minutes. The defense betrayed St. Louis, dropping from well above average to well below it, losing 7.4 points in relative efficiency overnight.2 Lovellette was injured for half of the season, but the team wasn’t so hot with him either. Wilkens also missed most of the year for military service, and in the 20 games he played, St. Louis looked average (+0.6 SRS). Another key factor, along with any regression from aging, was St. Louis’s coaching carousel; the Hawks trotted out three coaches that season, including Pettit himself for the final six games! (He was the eighth Hawks coach in six seasons.)

After that, St. Louis strung together a few more runs behind Pettit (the player), Zelmo Beaty and Wilkens, playing at a 45 to 49 win pace for Pettit’s final three seasons while returning to defensive performances that were comparable to their pre-’62 numbers.

Unfortunately, we have limited data from those years to gauge Pettit’s impact. If we examine his missed time, his WOWY score in 35 missed games during his prime is unimpressive (+0.9), although some scaling of those numbers is required given how tightly compacted the league was then. Using a more robust method like WOWYR demonstrates decent positive impact, but his numbers are closer to Sam Jones than the giants of the era. Given his injuries, It’s likely these studies understate his peak play, although I do think they accurately reflect a lack of dominance compared to that period’s transcendent stars.

I could easily see Pettit a slot or two lower on this list. However, it’s harder for me to see him much higher. This is largely due to a lack of information and rapid change during the era; Pettit is really the earliest star of the shot-clock period, and because of that, some curving is required to account for the influx of talent that would hit the league in the ’60s. Still, I give him nine All-NBA type seasons with a peak that barely touched MVP status, good enough for the 30th most valuable career since 1955.

 

The Backpicks GOAT: The 40 Best Careers in NBA History

Welcome to the Backpicks GOAT, a list seven years in the making! You may have seen ESPN, Slam, Elliot Kalb and Bill Simmons take a crack at the top basketball players ever. Maybe you have your own list of the NBA greats. Or maybe you just like reading lists. Either way, this particular one is a little different.

This is less about The List and more about the exercise of player evaluation. It’s intended to be an historical reference, organized by player, that (hopefully) adds to the understanding and appreciation of players, coaches and teams over the years. If you like videos, charts and graphs, you’ve come to the right list.

What This List Is Not

This list will not make traditional “arguments” for players. I won’t attempt to balance Kobe’s championships without Shaq, nor do I care about accolades like All-Star teams or the number of Hall of Fame teammates someone played with. I also don’t care how many rings a player won; the very thing I’m trying to tease out is who provided the most lift. Sometimes that lift is good enough to win, sometimes it’s not.

There are no time machines either — it’s not about how players would do today if transported into the past or future. It’s about the impact each had in his own time over the course of a career.

What This List Is

This list also goes far beyond the box score — indeed, the box score is merely a reference for quantifying tendencies — so if you’re used to citing points per game and Win Shares, this will be a bit different.

Instead, this is a career-value, or CORP list; it ranks the players who have provided the largest increase in the odds of a team winning championships over the course of their careers. This means that having great Finals moments or winning the hearts of fans with innovative passes is irrelevant. You can make a great list with those criteria, but that’s not what this exercise is intended to be.

This list is really about evaluating players based on “goodness,” not merely situational value. (If David Robinson backed up the two best centers ever, he wouldn’t be very valuable, but he’d still be very good.) Players do not earn credit for potential — Michael Jordan helped no one in 1994.

All told, in the last seven years I’ve evaluated over 1,500 player-seasons to compile this list.

Thinking Basketball

As you read player profiles, you will notice little mention of playoff performances or game-winning shots. That’s because sample-sizes are incredibly small; instead, playoffs are included as part of an entire evaluation. I’ll only call out the playoffs if they reflect something larger about a player. If you’re struck by the lack of discussion around clutch play or why “losing” players are ranked highly, all of these topics and more are explained in detail in Thinking Basketball. The book also examines critical components of team building (portability) and individual scoring that are foundational to these rankings. (Buying the book also supports the blog and is greatly appreciated!)

List Criteria

The first step is to evaluate a player season. My practice starts with film study in order to understand context.  Perhaps the most beautiful thing about basketball is that there are so many ways to skin the proverbial cat; 20 points per game for one player is not the same as 20 for another. Of course, some skills are more valuable than others. Here’s a guide to the major ones:

On defense, quality of rotations, court coverage, rim protection and length are all countermeasures to the above offensive criteria. (Rebounding counts too, separately for offense and defense.) I tracked these, shot selection, and passing habits in over 100 hours of video study specifically for this series. (To avoid winning bias, I watched segments of games from random quarters.)

After establishing the skill set and tendencies of a player (“Scouting Report”), I then leverage data to quantify the effect of these tendencies (“Impact Evaluation”). All of this ultimately leads to a numerical valuation that allows me to compare the impact of different seasons. The high-level criteria for determining “best career of all-time:”

  1. Evaluate how much a player impacts different lineups (Global offense and defense)
  2. Calculate the probability change in championships based on his health
  3. Add all his seasons together to determine CORP
  4. Adjust for longevity based on era
  5. Compare who has the highest impact

While the first step is my assessment of a player’s seasons, the next four steps are an attempt at an objective measure of career value using those assessments. To do this, I rely on a championship odds calculator I’ve developed over the years so I don’t have to worry about arbitrarily balancing “longevity” and “peak.” I then make an adjustment for era-based longevity, and typically sort out any close calls by defaulting to the player with the better peak or stronger era.

To simplify things, each player-season can be slotted into different tiers:

  • GOAT Season (30 percent or more chance of a title on a random team, or about +7 points per game on an average team)
  • All-Time Season (23-30 percent or +6)
  • MVP Season (17-23 percent or +5)
  • Weak MVP Season (12-17 percent or +4)
  • All-NBA Season (8-12 percent or +2.5)
  • All-Star Season (5-8 percent or +1)
  • Strong Role Player (3-5 percent or 0)
  • Role Player (1-3 percent or -2 to -0.5)

This allows for easy comparisons between multiple seasons; we can see if two MVP-level Bill Walton seasons are more valuable than, say, five All-NBA seasons from John Stockton.

Ranges, Not Absolutes

This is still only one person’s opinion. A “better” list would come from a group of diverse and highly knowledgable evaluators, like realgm’s top 100 list. I see my value here as a video and data curator and as an analyst of that data; obviously, mileage may vary on the rankings, especially depending on criteria.

With that said, I will try and highlight where there’s wiggle room and the ranges that I believe players fall into, but the final order is based on the most likely answers to me (i.e. gun to my head, how good I think a career was).

Stats Glossary

Throughout this list, I’ll use the following metrics regularly:

  • Efficiency (for individual players) – This is measured in true shooting percentage (TS), or occasionally points per scoring attempt (PPA). In the simplest terms, PPA estimates how many “attempts” were actually two-shot fouls, and takes the total number of points scored from 3-pointers, 2-pointers and free throws divided by attempts. True shooting divides PPA by two. In order to compare efficacy across years, this is almost always cited as relative to the league average (rTS). NB: Postseason rTS values are relative to the league (not the opponent) unless otherwise specified.
  • Efficiency (for teams)
    • Offense  This is an estimate of points scored per 100 possessions, or the team’s offensive efficiency. It is often cited as relative to the league average or “relative offensive rating” (rORtg). For the playoffs, rORtg is the difference between the team’s raw offensive rating and the opponent’s regular season defensive rating.
    • Defense – This is an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions, or the team’s defensive efficiency. It is often cited as relative to the league average or “relative defensive rating” (rDRtg). For the playoffs, rDRtg is the difference between the team’s raw defensive rating and the opponent’s regular season offensive rating.
  • Creation – This is an estimate of how many shots a player created for his teammates per 100 possessions played. It’s also sometimes referred to as a percentage.
  • SRS – The “Simple Rating System,” it is a measurement of point differential for teams, adjusted for schedule strength. SRS is highly predictive of regular season wins and more predictive of games and playoff series than win percentage alone. For this series, a teams “win-pace” is based on its SRS.
  • The Big 3 / Big 4 – These are the three primary offensive dimensions of the advanced box score: Scoring rate (points per 75 possessions), efficiency (rTS) and creation. A fourth dimension — “The Big 4” — includes turnovers (modified for the presence of creation). “Scaled” graphics (sometimes titled “Normalized”) shrink each dimension on an axis of the same length for an equal comparison between them.
  • WOWY / APM – These are the non-box score, scoreboard-based family of plus-minus metrics and some of the most important measuring tools we have in basketball. Most of the references to these are summarized in the historical WOWYR series and this post on the historical compilation of plus-minus metrics.

Who Am I?

The Backpicks Top 40

The series is intended to be read in the order the profiles were released, which is noted next to each player (from nine through 30), beginning with Wilt Chamberlain. Players 31-40 are profiled in small blurbs, most players from 21-30 have limited video-based scouting reports, and all profiles in the top-20 feature full video-based scouting reports. The final eight can be read in any order.

List updated after the 2019 season.

*Limited video-based scouting report 

  1. Ray Allen
  2. Clyde Drexler
  3. Kevin McHale
  4. Elgin Baylor
  5. Artis Gilmore
  6. Paul Pierce
  7. Jason Kidd
  8. Walt Frazier
  9. John Havlicek
  10. Bob Pettit* (2)
  11. Reggie Miller (10)
  12. Rick Barry(5)
  13. Patrick Ewing(11)
  14. John Stockton (12)
  15. Moses Malone(7)
  16. Scottie Pippen(13)
  17. Dwyane Wade(17)
  18. Kevin Durant(22)
  19. Charles Barkley (14)
  20. Chris Paul(18)
  21. Stephen Curry
  22. Steve Nash (19)
  23. Dirk Nowitzki (20)
  24. Jerry West (3)
  25. Julius Erving (6)
  26. David Robinson (15)
  27. Karl Malone (16)
  28. Kobe Bryant (21)
  29. Oscar Robertson (4)
  30. Larry Bird (8)
  31. Magic Johnson (9)
  32. Wilt Chamberlain (1)
  33. Kevin Garnett
  34. Tim Duncan
  35. Hakeem Olajuwon
  36. Shaquille O’Neal
  37. Bill Russell
  38. Michael Jordan
  39. LeBron James
  40. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Addenda:

Fall 2022 Podcast series update (old rank in parentheses) 

  1. Clyde Drexler (39)
  2. Isiah Thomas (honorable mention)
  3. Elgin Baylor (37)
  4. Walt Frazier (33)
  5. Paul Pierce (35)
  6. Patrick Ewing (28)
  7. Artis Gilmore (36)
  8. Jason Kidd (34)
  9. John Havlicek (32)
  10. Bob Pettit (31)
  11. James Harden (unranked)
  12. Reggie Miller (30)
  13. Rick Barry (29)
  14. Moses Malone (26)
  15. Scottie Pippen (25)
  16. Dwyane Wade (24)
  17. John Stockton (27)
  18. Steve Nash (19)
  19. Charles Barkley (22)
  20. Kevin Durant (23)
  21. Julius Erving (16)
  22. David Robinson (15)
  23. Jerry West (17)
  24. Chris Paul (21)
  25. Stephen Curry (20)
  26. Dirk Nowitzki (18)
  27. Oscar Robertson (12)
  28. Karl Malone (14)
  29. Kobe Bryant (13)
  30. Magic Johnson (10) 
  31. Larry Bird (11)
  32. Kevin Garnett (8)
  33. Wilt Chamberlain (9)
  34. Tim Duncan (7)
  35. Hakeem Olajuwon (6)
  36. Shaquille O’Neal (5)
  37. Bill Russell (4)
  38. Michael Jordan (3)
  39. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1)
  40. LeBron James (2)