The Best “Healthy” Offenses of All-Time

In the last post, we looked at the best point-differentials of all-time posted by teams that were “healthy” (when all 25-minute per game players were in action, minimum 41 games played together). But what about isolating the offensive side of the ball?

Since box scores aren’t readily available before 1984, we are limited to teams from the last 32 seasons. But that’s fine — 99 of the top 100 most efficient teams in NBA history played in 1984 or later. (The 1982 Nuggets are the exception.)

Before analyzing the list, a quick disclaimer to keep in mind: Offensive rating is not a perfect representation of offensive quality. Teams can choose offensive-centric lineups at the expense of defense for a net boost, such as crashing the offensive boards instead of retreating in transition defense. Below are the top offenses, relative to the defenses faced, based on these healthy lineup standards:

Healthy Offense Relative ORtg

The 2006 Suns played the second half of the season without Kurt Thomas after running out of big men. As a result, they played one of the most lopsided lineups in NBA history, starting Boris Diaw at center and three wings alongside Steve Nash. They had one big man (Brian Grant) off the bench. While they feasted on defenses, they were defensively compromised and posted an abysmal +6.6 defensive rating during these games. Given that, I wouldn’t rush to crown them the GOAT offense. Some of the Dallas teams on the list also suffer from this kind of lineup tradeoff, slotting Dirk Nowitzki at center next to an offensively-leaning forward.

Offensive rebounding has declined drastically over the last two decades as teams have sacrificed crashing the glass in order to defend transition. Some teams still crash the glass hard, but sometimes individuals are just great offensive rebounders. Dennis Rodman is the ultimate example example of this — he’ll jump a team two tiers by himself. For example, in 37 games without Rodman, the ’96 and ’97 Bulls — with Longley, Kukoc, Jordan and Pippen playing — saw a 5.1% drop in their offensive rebounding rate, which is about the difference between the best offensive rebounding team in the league and an average one.

So let’s expand the list to include components that help place a team’s offensive rating in perspective, such as offensive rebounding rate and turnover percentage. Let’s also include the raw offensive rating and true shooting percentage (TS%) of the team:

Healthy Offense Expanded

First, the 2004 Kings number is shocking because they did it without Chris Webber; they smoked the league with Brad Miller starting in place of him, a phenomenon I discuss in Thinking Basketball.

The ’96 Magic and ’16 Warriors certainly jump out as candidates for the best offenses ever. If you’re eyes thought you’d never seen anything like Golden State this year, you were right; the Warriors shooting efficiency yielded an unheard of 1.19 points per scoring attempt. The ’96 Magic were amazing too, but aided by a shortened 3-point line.

There’s a dark horse in there: The 2016 Cavs, the team that beat the Warriors. Injuries have masked an all-time level offense, led by LeBron JamesKyrie Irving and even Kevin Love. They are not in the upper stratosphere of shooting efficiency, but are a low-turnover offense (11.5%) that benefits from player-specific offensive rebounding by Tristian Thompson.

But how good is an offense that can only take advantage of a fundamentally poor defense? While most offenses perform better against weaker defenses, Cleveland has no correlation between an opponent’s defensive strength and its own offensive production. A linear regression predicts that the Cavs offense will actually perform better against elite defenses than almost every team on this list, including Golden State. Given the small samples, I wouldn’t put too much stock in this, but it is worth noting nonetheless.

Of course, there’s an elephant in the room. Where will Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and the 2017 Warriors place on this list?

 

 

From the Vault: Observations from a season of Stat-Tracking

This post was originally published on April 13, 2011. It is a summary of findings after one year of stat-tracking basketball games in attempt to extend the box score. SportsVU now captures similar data. 

If one spends enough time watching NBA games with a DVR, trends start to jump out. Unfortunately, there’s no way the human brain can accurately catalog all that information. Perhaps Data from Star Trek should be assigned to finding trends in basketball games. In the meantime, here are some statistical observations from roughly 23,000 possessions of stat-tracking in 2011:

Creation

  • 16% of all field goals came off of an Opportunity Created (OC).
  • 46% of 3-pointers came off of an OC.
  • The average player shot 40% on 3-point shots off of an OC.
  • The Spurs led the league in OC’s (23.5 per 100 possessions), with the Hawks second at 23.4.
  • The Jazz needed the most help on defense — which means their opponents create the most opportunities (23.7 OC per 100).
    • The Jazz had the lowest Defensive Rating in the sample by far (118.7).

Fouling

  • The Lakers committed the fewest shooting fouls in the league (16.5 free throws/100).
  • Someone takes an offensive foul every 88 possessions…or a little more than once per game.
  • Phoenix takes more offensive fouls than any other team – 2.2 per 100 possessions.

Defense

  • In guarded situations, the most successful teams are the best defensive teams: The four leaders in guarded field goal percentage are in the top-5 in defensive rating (and Milwaukee’s sample was too small):
    1. Miami (36.6%)
    2. Chicago (36.6%)
    3. Boston (36.9%)
    4. LA Lakers (37.7%)
  • The Lakers make the most defensive errors…but give up the fewest points per error (1.50 points/error), a credit to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol protecting the paint.
  • Every 172 possessions there is a forced turnover not counted as a steal (eg slapped off a leg out of bounds). That means the NBA doesn’t track about 1700 “steals” during the season.
  • Teams shoot the worst in unguarded situations against the Lakers (56.6% eFG%), which suggests that LA does well closing out shots and fighting through screens…or they’re just lucky.